Tea time. Grab a biscuit, this is a slightly longer post.
Let’s have a look at the claim often repeated on this thread that, in a poll, Tower Hamlets folk took strongly against their Borough 20mph limit. In a local paper headline in 2016 a local Councillor made the claim, that in a Council poll, “53% had disagreed with the speed restriction” to support his views on the issue and to demonstrate how unpopular the scheme is. The story was picked up by several other publications.
But is that true and, if so, how reliable is it as proof of the unpopularity of 20mph cross- Borough limits? To find out, we need to look for the research, which it turns out had only been very selectively quoted from.
Tower Hamlets 20mph review
Council papers from September 2016 look at an independent review of 12 months operation of their scheme. The Council concluded, on the basis of the review, that they would, with some tweaks, make their scheme permanent. Lots of interesting stuff there, but let’s keep the focus on that poll.
_“n internet survey of borough residents attracted over 900 replies and overall showed only 40% support for the limit compared to 53% disagreeing with it. The method was used because of its simplicity to implement and its low cost however it is important to understand the limitations of the survey.
_As it is selfselecting it can be expected to engage residents that have a particularly strong opinion one way or another. It is unlikely to engage those with no opinion or who do not feel particularly strongly either way. Such survey methodology tends therefore to exaggerate the negative opinion as motivation to respond on a self-selected basis is most often generated by negative concerns. _
_This survey method does not provide a representative sample of the population and it does not provide a safe basis upon which to conclude that the result is an accurate representation of the wider communities’ views. It does, however, give those who want to express a view the opportunity to do so and have it considered and it gives some limited indication of the strength of opinion of the group that engaged. _
With these significant caveats in mind it is evident that this result varies on a geographical basis, suggesting that the speed limit is more widely endorsed by those expressing an opinion in the north of the borough than in the south. Of the 900 replies, over 500 came from the E14 postcode area and showed 65% were against the limit. However, a lower level of responses in each of E1, E2 and E3 showed only 44%, 37% and 27% (respectively) of respondents disagreed with the limit.”
Not reliable
So not reliable evidence at all then; no explanation as to why such a disproportionate number of those polled lived in a very small section of the borough. That misleading headline in the local paper is still on the web but hey, the Councillor got his headline and that should play well with some target voters.
Responses in Tower Hamlets mirror very closely what happened on the recent SE23.Life Poll, where , entirely predictably, self selecting early responders tended to be those with a strong opinion against the limit.
And finally… A couple of wider general quotes from our neighbours in Tower Hamlets.
‘This report summarises the key findings of the review of the scheme, which are broadly positive.’
“By making the experimental traffic order permanent, it will provide road safety benefits to all residents of the borough, with particular positive impacts demonstrated for vulnerable road users including the elderly, young children, cyclists, pedestrians and mobility impaired people.”
“From an economic viewpoint, the costs associated with implementing the 20mph speed limit has brought benefits, and based on the analysis of ‘after’ casualty rates, the scheme has provided value for money.
Furthermore, a reduction in serious and fatal injuries has supported the safety benefits of introducing the scheme “
I look forward to a comparable review from Lewisham in due course. Thanks for listening; my tea has gone cold now.